The latest YouGov polling has again showed Plaid Cymru on course for victory in May’s Senedd elections, with First Minister Eluned Morgan set to lose out on gaining a seat, and the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats facing an almost complete wipeout.

YouGov’s first full MRP model of the 2026 Senedd election for ITV Cymru Wales puts Rhun ap Iorwerth in pole position to be the next first minister of Wales, with a central projection of 43 seats for Plaid Cymru, just six short of the 49 needed for a majority in the now 96-member Welsh parliament.

Although the party has been a junior member of Welsh governments in the past, this would be the first time the party has come first across Wales in a major election, and marks a substantial gain on the 24 seats the party are estimated to have won in 2021 had it been conducted using the new electoral system.

But Plaid are not the only party set for a significant breakthrough in Wales according to the model, which uses data from nearly 3,000 Welsh adults in fieldwork from 9 to 18 March.

Reform UK, who won a mere one per cent of the vote at the previous Senedd election, are set for a clear second place on 30 seats according to the model’s central estimates, while the Greens, who have also never won a seat at Cardiff Bay, are currently on course to elect 10 members of the Senedd.

These gains come most notably at the expense of Labour, who are set to win just 12 seats, a notional loss of 32, leaving them near-tied for third place.

Labour has won every devolved election so far and topped the poll in Wales at every Westminster election since 1922.

First Minister Eluned Morgan, standing in the new look Ceredigion Penfro seat, will not retrun to the Senedd if the polling numbers are correct, with Ceredigion Penfro returning three Plaid Cymru, two Reform and one Green MS.

The same MS mix will be seen in the Gwynedd Maldwyn constituency if the polling data holds.

While Wales has not been such an area of strength for the Conservatives, the result projected by the MRP is nearing existential for the Welsh Tories, with the central estimate projecting just a single seat for the party, down from a notional result of 26 in 2021.

The Liberal Democrats fare even worse, being left with no seats according to the median projection, a notional loss of two.

Overall, according to the model’s median projections, a Plaid Cymru-led government is by far the most plausible outcome of the election, with Reform UK requiring the votes of every other party to form an alternative government.

By contrast, Plaid Cymru are set to have the option of forming coalitions with either Labour (giving 55 seats, a 14-seat majority) or the Greens (53 seats, a 10-seat majority), though the party have expressed a preference for a minority government made-up solely of Plaid Cymru members.