Wales will see 24,000 new cancer cases (excluding non-melanoma skin cancers) in Wales identified in 2035, according to modelling projections from Public Health Wales.

A new report predicts this increase of 11 per cent from 2025, as the over-65s population is projected to grow by 135,000 in the next decade.

Cancer accounts for around one in four deaths of people in Wales, being the recorded cause for 9,123 deaths in Wales in 2024. Although the likelihood of surviving for more than five years after a cancer diagnosis is increasing, the total number of new cases has gone up - meaning there are now ten per cent more deaths from cancer in Wales than in 2002.

Just over half the number of cases of cancer are made of the four most common types – prostate, breast, lung and colorectal (bowel) cancers. Lung cancer is responsible for the highest number of deaths from cancer, partly because it is often diagnosed at a late stage.

Public Health Wales has projected in the report that by 2035 there will be more cases of prostate cancer, breast cancer and bowel cancer each year. Because of challenges capturing the impact of changing patterns of smoking and the potential impact of the targeted national screening programme – to be introduced in 2027 - it was not possible to project the numbers of lung cancer cases.

Dr Llion Davies, Consultant in Public Health Medicine for Public Health Wales, said: “We predict that more people will be diagnosed with cancer, as becoming older is one of the main drivers of cancer incidence.

“Cancer prevention and early diagnosis activity includes Public Health Wales’s existing and planned screening programmes - which are designed to identify cancers at an early, more treatable stage - and the free Help Me Quit smoking cessation service. The Bowel Screening Wales and Cervical Screening Wales programmes also prevent cancer, as does the HPV vaccination programme. It is clear from established evidence that investing in effective cancer prevention and early diagnosis should be a priority - given the existing inequalities and the projected increase in cases in the coming years.

“Inequalities remain stark. In too many parts of Wales, the building blocks of health and wellbeing - such as healthy homes, good jobs, enough money to pay bills, connections with people in our communities, education and skills, and safe and clean environments - are not strong enough or are missing altogether. This leads to poorer health and lives being cut short, creating or worsening health inequalities.”

The report asserts that the deprivation gaps in cancer diagnosis and survival show no signs of closing. After adjusting for different age distributions, the incidence of cancer is a fifth higher in the most deprived areas compared to the least deprived, and has been a similar level for nearly 20 years.

Well-established evidence has demonstrated that around four in ten new cancers can be prevented, by reducing risk factors such as smoking, living with overweight or obesity, drinking alcohol, HPV infection or getting too much UV exposure.